When AP first used VoteCast in the 2018 midterms, AP said they were able to accurately determine the outcome of races within 2 percentage points of the final published results.Д«ut race calls are projections, meaning the AP is using its data to forecast what the outcome will be before all the votes are counted, and thus there is a margin for error. 3, AP expects to complete about 140,000 interviews.ДЄPвЂ™s decision desk uses VoteCast data along with actual vote counts and the months of research to determine winners and call races. VoteCast includes opinions about the presidential election in all 50 states, as well as every gubernatorial race and elections for U.S. electorate, AP uses a weighting and calibration process to make sure every demographic group is represented. To ensure their samples accurately reflect the U.S. It also uses data from self-identified registered voters who participate in online panels. The system contacts registered voters randomly selected from every stateвЂ™s voter files and questions them either by phone or online in English or Spanish. PODCAST: Why voter suppression continues and how the pandemic has made it worse вЂњA highly accurate survey to deliver highly accurate results, regardless of the way in which people cast their ballot.вЂќ вЂњWe wanted something new that would be more tailored to an electorate that was increasingly voting in advance, and so we came up with a new way to survey the electorate,вЂќ Scott said. So AP collaborated with the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago to develop VoteCast. This trend made exit polling a less effective method of examining voter behavior, Scott said.

Election Assistance Commission indicates that the total number of voters who either voted early or by mail grew from 24.9 million in 2004 to 57.2 million in 2016, an increase from 20 percent of all ballots cast to 40 percent of the total vote. Traditionally, AP has relied on exit polls - in-person interviews with voters as they leave their polling locations - which have played a key role in calling races by assessing how people are voting on Election Day.Д«ut even before the pandemic, a growing number of people around the country were casting their ballots by mail or early. This year will be the first time AP uses its new voter survey system, VoteCast, for a presidential election. That information is passed on to APвЂ™s analysts and race callers who work together to study all the information in preparation for the big day. How does AP prepare for Election Day?ДЄPвЂ™s election research team gets to work months before Election Day collecting data on state voting history and trends, demographics, state election laws, as well as rules on when counties can begin processing mailed ballots. The NewsHour and many other major news outlets use the APвЂ™s data and race calls in their election coverage. вЂњWeвЂ™re just having to apply our experience in assessing a race - and how ballots are cast and when theyвЂ™re cast and when theyвЂ™re counted - in more places,вЂќ Scott said. But their process, which includes a voter survey system first widely used in 2018 to accommodate larger numbers of early and mailed ballots, will largely remain the same, said APвЂ™s deputy managing editor David Scott. This year, itвЂ™s had to adjust for some unusual circumstances as it prepares to determine winners in more than 7,000 races for seats in state legislatures, Congress and the White House. Since 1848, the Associated Press has played a key role in calculating the U.S. The coronavirus pandemic and a historic surge in voting early and by mail have sparked a number of questions about election night, among them: What will calling races look like, and when will we have results?

Election night call